Q3 2025 GDP Growth at 4.3%: What It Means for Fort Worth Commercial Real Estate

Q3 2025 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations: Commercial Real Estate Implications

Real GDP expanded by a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.3% during the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This growth was well above the 3.3% consensus estimate, signaling continued economic resilience with important implications for Fort Worth commercial real estate investors.

Consumer Spending Drives Growth

Consumer spending grew at a 3.5% annual pace, contributing about 55% of total output for the quarter. Outlays on healthcare, recreation, and non-durable goods drove the increase in consumer spending, positive signals for retail and medical office investors in the Dallas-Fort Worth market.

A shift in trade dynamics was also a key contributor to the faster-than-expected growth in Q3:

• Exports jumped by an annualized 8.8% rate
• Imports declined by 4.7%
• Government outlays rose at an annualized rate of 2.2%, driven by a 5.8% increase in national defense spending

Business Investment and Commercial Property Implications

Meanwhile, business investment grew more tepidly, decelerating to 2.8% in Q3 and contributing a drag on overall economic output. AI investment and cap-ex spending on information processing equipment were robust during the period, but high borrowing costs and labor headwinds tempered spending on structures and residential investment.

For Fort Worth commercial real estate investors, this suggests:

• Data center demand continues to strengthen
• Office market recovery remains gradual
• Industrial logistics benefits from trade rebalancing

November Jobs Report: Labor Market Signals

According to the latest data from the BLS, nonfarm payrolls were little changed in November, with employers adding just 64,000 jobs following an October decline of 101,000 payrolls. The headline unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose to $36.86, up 3.5% from November 2024.

The most notable job increases were in:

• Health care: +46,000 (positive for medical office demand)
• Construction: +28,000 (indicates development activity)

While declines were seen in:

• Federal government positions: -6,000
• Transportation and warehousing: -18,000

CPI Inflation Trends

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 2.7% year-over-year in November from 3.0% in September. Core-CPI, which excludes food and energy components, rose 2.6% year-over-year, its slowest pace since March 2021.

The shelter index of CPI, which has been a key contributor to post-pandemic inflation, cooled to 3.0% year-over-year, a positive sign for apartment operating costs and multifamily investors in Fort Worth.

Commercial Property Prices Show Resilience

According to the latest MSCI-RCA Commercial Property Price Index:

• US commercial real estate prices were flat month-over-month but up 1.6% over the previous twelve months through November
• Year-to-date volume has already exceeded 2024's total

By Sector:

• Industrial properties: Up 0.5% from October and 5.1% over the past twelve months, the strongest performance
• Suburban office: Rising 0.3% from October, up 2.7% year-over-year (continuing 2025 recovery)
• CBD office prices: Down 0.7% from October, down 1.9% year-over-year
• Retail prices: Down 0.1% from October but remain 2.4% above November 2024 level
• Apartment properties: Falling 0.2% from October, down 1.4% year-over-year

Retail Market Resilience

Despite retail sales being flat month-over-month between September and October, a deeper analysis shows the retail market is chugging along with strong momentum. Year-over-year sales rose 3.8% in October, while core retail sales are up 4.5%.

Signs of underlying strength include:

• Rising household net worth
• Wages outpacing inflation over the past 30 months
• Relatively low unemployment

A TD Cowen study suggests holiday sales growth could be up to 5% higher this year than in 2024, positive for Fort Worth retail property owners.

National Industrial Performance

According to the latest CommercialEdge National Industrial Report:

• Average rent on industrial properties rose to $8.76 per square foot, up 5.7% year-over-year
• National vacancy rate stands at 9.75%, rising 220 basis points over twelve months
• Dallas-Fort Worth leads year-to-date sales volume at roughly $5.6 billion
• 382.7 million square feet under construction nationally

For Fort Worth industrial investors, the DFW market continues to outperform national averages with strong tenant demand from e-commerce and logistics sectors.

Office Market Stabilization

The US office market has shown signs of stabilization in 2025 as construction activity slowed to historic lows:

• Just over 12 million square feet of office development started through November
• Vacancy has fallen to 18.5% through November, with 16 of the top 25 markets seeing declines
• For the first time since 2022, the average national asking price per square foot rose

Growth in coworking remains an essential driver of sector expansion, with 22 million square feet of coworking space opening in 2025, a 16% increase over last year.

Rent Collections Improve

On-time rental payments in independently operated apartment units rose by 73 basis points in December to 83.7%. While on-time rent collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, they have been trending positively since August.

Western states continue to post the strongest on-time payment rates nationally.

Fort Worth Market Outlook

The strong GDP growth combined with moderating inflation creates favorable conditions for Fort Worth commercial real estate:

1. Industrial: Continued strength with DFW leading national transaction volume
2. Suburban Office: Recovery trend continuing with rent stabilization
3. Retail: Benefiting from strong consumer spending
4. Multifamily: Price corrections creating buying opportunities

Partner With Fort Worth CRE Experts

Navigating these economic trends requires local market expertise. Contact SVN Trinity Advisors for personalized analysis of Fort Worth commercial real estate opportunities aligned with current market conditions.